000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060251
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 111.7W AT 06/0300 
UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRES IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT GUST TO 
65 KT. SEA LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES. 
DANIEL IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY MORNING 
NEAR 14.6N 114.7W AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS SPLIT AS A RESULT OF TROPICAL STORM 
DANIEL. ONE PART EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N103W. THE SECOND PART 
EXTENDS FROM 12N116W TO 10N123W THEN TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO 
BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 
BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N AND SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 
103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W 
AND 103W. VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITHIN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY 400 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. LOOKING AT THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY DIAGNOSTIC 
ANALYSIS WEB SITE...IT APPEARS THAT THIS CIRCULATION IS A REGION 
OF ENHANCED VORTICITY THAT RESULTED FROM THE INTERACTION OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WITH GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS CIRCULATION IS STILL BROAD 
ENOUGH WHERE A LOW CENTER HAS NOT BEEN PLACED ONTO THE SURFACE 
ANALYSIS. WITH THE ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FROM GAP WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS 
CIRCULATION WILL BECOME MORE DISCREET WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO CONTINUE WATCHING 
THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE 
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. 

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE 1029 MB LOCATED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
35N152W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N118W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH 20 KT TRADES 
FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 130W. THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS MAINTAINING THIS SMALL ARE OF FRESH TRADES. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF 
THE AREA BY FRI MORNING AND WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD TO COVER 
THE AREA SOUTH OF 06N BETWEEN 93W AND 120W BY SAT NIGHT.  

$$
AL