000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050241
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 108.9W AT 05/0300 
UTC MOVING WNW 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 1005 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT GUST TO 40 KT. SEA LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH 
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AND HURRICANE INTENSITY SAT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS REMAINS SPLIT. ONE PART OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N96W. THE SECOND PART OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS THEN RESUMES W OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
FOUR-E AT 13N114W TO 11N124W THEN ITCZ AXIS TO BEYOND 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
180 NM OF AXIS E OF 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1032 MB CENTERED NEAR 37N153W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING 
SE TO NEAR 22N118W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A 
SMALL AREA OF FRESH 20 KT TRADES FROM 16N TO 20N W OF 135W. THIS 
RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS MAINTAINING THIS SMALL 
AREA OF FRESH TRADES. 

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACTIVE E OF 93W AS A RESULT OF A 
COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE...THE TOPOGRAPHY OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL 
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP A SURFACE CIRCULATION WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH IT HAS BACKED OFF 
THE STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION THIS LATEST RUN. IT WILL BE 
INTERESTING TO CONTINUE WATCHING THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS..AND SEE HOW WELL THE MODELS HANDLE THIS SITUATION.  

$$
AL