000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E CENTERED AT 12.3N 105.5W AT 0900 UTC 
MOVING WNW 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUST TO 40 KT 
WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1006 MB. SEA LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMPE4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S AND 30 NM N 
SEMICIRCLES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E IS FORECAST TO BECOME A 
TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 13.0N 106.9W AND CONTINUE AS 
A TROPICAL STORM THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 7N78W TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E NEAR 
12.3N105.5W 1006 MB TO 11N120W TO 9N124W. ITCZ 9N124W TO 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N AND 100 
S OF AXIS FROM 84W-88W AND WITHIN 70 NM N AND 40 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 89W-97W AND WITHIN 120 NM S AND 30 NM N SEMICIRCLES OF 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR E AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 114W-117W.


...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N130W 
WITH RIDGE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NE TO 25N123W. THE RIDGE HAS 
FLATTENED AND SHIFTED S AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHES THE FAR 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 115W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA FROM 27N119W TO 22N116W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
SEPARATES THE TROUGH FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHERN 
MEXICO COAST NEAR 15N97W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT BETWEEN THE 
CIRCULATION AND RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE.

ELY WINDS 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY FRI.

$$
DGS