000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
LOW PRES CENTER 1006 MB AT 12N104W HAS NUMEROUS MODERATE 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM SW SEMICIRCLE AND 120 
NM NE QUADRANT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH CHANCE THAT THIS 
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS REMAINS SPLIT. THE FIRST PART OF THE 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N95W. THE SECOND PART OF THE AXIS 
IS ANCHORED TO LOW PRES MENTIONED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES 
CENTERED NEAR 12N104W 1006 MB AND EXTENDS TO 12N115W TO 07N127W 
THEN TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AXIS TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 330 NUMEROUS STRONG S OF AXIS TO 03N E 
OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM NW N OF AXIS FROM 116W 
TO 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1033 MB CENTERED NEAR 37N151W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING 
SE TO NEAR 21N113W. ASIDE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MENTIONED 
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...CONDITIONS ARE RATHER BENIGN 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN RESPONSE TO A 
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...FRESH 20 KT 
WINDS ARE FUNNELING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO INTO THE FAR E WATERS FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W. THESE 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOOKING BEYOND 48 
HOURS...CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AREA MAY BE ONE OF 
INTEREST. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...THE SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL 
INCREASE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL AMERICA. 
THIS INCREASE IN MONSOONAL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE GAP WIND FLOW 
THROUGH PAPAGAYO WILL HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY WITHIN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH...WITH BACKGROUND FLOW FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER 
GROWTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT AND THIS DOES PAN OUT. IF IT DOES...IT 
WOULD BE AN EXCELLENT EXAMPLE OF HOW TROPICAL WAVES INTERACT 
WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 
HELP DEVELOP A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE EPAC.    

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AL