000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011553 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUL 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA AT 08N75W WESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA. THE ITCZ IS DISTORTED BETWEEN 85W AND 110W BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM 08N110W TO 10N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 82W AND 121W WITH NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED IN A LINE EXTENDING PARALLEL TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM 06N82W 14N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 121W AND 140W. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W AND IS MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED 10 KT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE YESTERDAY IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE TODAY. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N126W TO 29N140W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY ALOFT. THIS TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED ON MON BUT SHIFT NORTHWARD TO ALONG 35N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS STATIONARY NEAR 26N117W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 22N138W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS AT 17N135W AND PROGRESSING WESTWARD JUST TO THE S OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND SHOULD PASS W OF 140W ON MON. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS AT 31N116W AND MOVING N PRECEDED BY UPPER MOISTURE NOW SPREADING NE ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 25N105W IS MOVING SLOWLY W...AND HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE E PACIFIC AT 17N110W. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE MEXICAN COAST AT 21N105W AND ALSO ALONG THE E COAST OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING SW OVER THE PACIFIC FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 96W AND 106W...WITH MOISTURE ALSO ADVECTED NE AND E ACROSS SE TEXAS AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 28N109W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW ADVECTED S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA... EVENTUALLY EVAPORATING AT 20N110W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY N OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W AND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE GUATEMALA/OLD MEXICO BORDER WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW OVER THE PACIFIC TO 13N93W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ROUGHLY IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 88W AND 102W. IMMEDIATELY TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH STRONG ANTICYCLONIC NE TO E FLOW CONTINUES IN THE AREA FROM 07N TO 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 126W AND ADVECTS DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TROPICAL CONVECTION WESTWARD TO ABOUT 125W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N83W WITH ITS ENVELOPE COVERING THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC TO THE N OF 03N BETWEEN 81W AND 88W. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE LOW LEVELS A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W. LOW LEVEL WINDS NE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 120W AND THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FT IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE IN THE AREA FROM 08N TO 23N TO THE W OF 130W... INCREASING THE NE WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KT. GAP WINDS...E WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 92W THROUGH TUE. $$ NELSON