000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010231 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUL 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N78W TO 08N84W TO 10N92W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W FROM 08N TO 13N HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 11N. ITCZ AXIS FROM 07N97W TO 09N104W TO 06N110W TO 08N119W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 119W. TROUGH JUST N OF THE ITCZ LIES ALONG 106W FROM 08N TO 15N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 08N TO 13N AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W LIES ON THE WEST EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING AN UPPER LOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER GUATEMALA. SOME OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSOLIDATION OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...FRESH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY INDUCED BY THIS JET WILL ALSO ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 03N105W. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH IS EVIDENT N IN THE 1612 UTC ASCAT PASS AND THE 1858 UTC OSCAT PASS N OF THE ITCZ ALONG 106W. SPEED DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE 40 KT EASTERLY UPPER JET N OF THE LOW ALONG 13N AND LIGHTER NE FLOW NW OF THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ALONG THE ITCZ. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK W-NW IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER JET OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS RELATIVELY WEAK...STEMMING FROM 1031 MB HIGH PRES WELL NEAR 38N162W. THE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS BEING COMPROMISED BY A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS DISSIPATING OVER NW WATERS. TRADE WINDS ARE DOWN TO A MODERATE BREEZE AS A RESULT. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM ANCHORING THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...DECREASING SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 37N BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. NW WINDS ARE ARE ALREADY A FRESH BREEZE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 28N AS WEAKENING RIDGING E OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN FORCED CLOSER TO THE LOWER PRESSURES OVER NW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG ON SUN AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PENINSULA AS THE PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE NORTHWARD DISPLACED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND MEXICO. BY MON...THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DIP SOUTHWARD AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA JUST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE FRESH NE WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHRINK EASTWARD BY SUN AS THE WAVE PULLS WESTWARD. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH MON FOR A SUSTAINED FRESH BREEZE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INCREASING PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N MON MORNING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NE WATERS...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE MON AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO THAT EVENING. $$ SCHAUER