000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282118
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1845 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N87W TO 14N96W. 
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N108W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 210 NM S AND 90 NM N 
OF AXIS E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 90 NM 
TO 300 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALSO LIES WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 132W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

A REMARKABLY QUIET PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY CONFINED OVER AND NEAR 
PANAMA/COSTA RICA WHERE THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL 
WAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY ARE 
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE BEEN ON 
THE RISE HERE TODAY. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION 
ABOVE. ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH THE ONSET OF FRESH WINDS 
EXPECTED FRI MORNING. FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SAT AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE 
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE TRACKABLE AT THE SURFACE LATE IN THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. SOME OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW 
WILL DEVELOP FROM THIS ENERGY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

SOME DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 132W WHERE 
LIGHT...BROADLY DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ENCOURAGING LIFT 
OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOSITURE POOLED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE 1834 
UTC ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH THE 1434 UTC WINDSAT PASS SHOW THIS 
CONVECTION COINCIDES WITH A NARROW BAND OF FRESH TRADES JUST N 
OF THE ITCZ. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N IS RELATIVELY 
WEAK...STEMMING FROM HIGH PRES WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N166W. 
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW WATERS OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT. 
FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA BY SAT AS A 
RESULT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR SEAS OVER 8 FT ARE EXPECTED 
WITH THIS DISSIPATING FRONT. HIGH PRES E OF THE FRONT WILL JOG 
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO SHORE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS WILL 
INCREASE THE GRADIENT N OF 29N ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NORTE JUST ENOUGH TO INDUCE FRESH NW FLOW BEGINNING 
FRI EVENING. 


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SCHAUER