000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W OVER PANAMA TO 16N96W OVER SE 
MEXICO...THEN A BREAK...AGAIN FROM 13N105W TO 08N118W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM THERE TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W TO 
105W AND FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W TO 86W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY WITH NO ACTIVE 
TROPICAL CYCLONES...NO SYSTEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND NO GAP WIND EVENTS.  

THE SURFACE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER AT 34N164W WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE 
SW UNITED STATES IS SUPPORTING FRESH NW WINDS JUST WEST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA.  AS THIS GRADIENT RELAXES SOME LATER TODAY...THESE 
WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW OUR 20 KT CRITERIA.  THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ IS ALSO PRODUCING FRESH 
NE TRADEWINDS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

A WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF MEXICO 
NEAR 16N101W AS A RESULT OF A CONVECTIVE BURST YESTERDAY.  DUE 
TO A RATHER UNCONDUCIVE STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND MODERATE EASTERLY 
VERTICAL SHEAR...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS NOT 
LIKELY TO OCCUR.

ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE 
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...LIKELY IN 
CONNECTION WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 71W OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.  UNDER LOW EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND OVER WARM 
SSTS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FURTHER DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN FOUR TO FIVE DAYS.  THE CONSISTENCY OF 
THE MODEL OUTPUT LEAD TO SOME CONFIDENCE THAT SOME RENEWED 
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEXT WEEK IN THE 
BASIN.

NO SIGNIFICANT LARGE WAVE HEIGHT LONG-PERIOD SWELL SHOULD AFFECT 
OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N119W 
DOMINATES THE FLOW PATTERN IS INDUCING TYPICALLY SUBSIDENT 
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MOST OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.  

$$
LANDSEA