000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB AT 16N100W 
TO 11N107W TO 11N118W TO 09N122W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 05N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WELL N OF 
AREA ACROSS 32N136W TO BEYOND 30N140W.  TROUGH FORCES LARGE MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 22N118W FURTHER E SPREADING DRY 
STABLE AIR MASS TO COVER ENTIRE REGION N OF 14N W OF 105W.  
CLOUDINESS IS RESTRICTED TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL 
STRATIFIED CLOUDS WITH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT SIGNIFICANTLY 
CURTAILED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER ANTICYCLONE. 
NOT EVEN MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH SUBSIDENCE 
CAP.  

SECOND TROUGH ALOFT DIGS SW FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 15N108W 
SPLITTING RIDGE FROM SECOND ANTICYCLONE OVER NE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA.  THIS ANTICYCLONE BRINGS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE 
FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO E PAC S OF 10N MAINLY E OF 112W UNDER 
STEADY ELY FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE.  REGION OF DEEP 
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 104W.  NEITHER 
UPPER NOR LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SEEM FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL 
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME OR IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

...ELSEWHERE AT LOWER LEVELS...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHES NW 
CORNER OF BASIN EXPECTED TO MOVE S OF 30N LATE TODAY AND 
DISSIPATE BY THU AS STUBBORN 1022 MB HIGH PRES SETS ANCHOR NEAR 
29N120W.  FRESH NW BREEZE WITH 8 FT SEAS ALONG COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA N OF 26N WEAKENS TODAY...BUT RETURN WITH A 
VENGEANCE BY SAT AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS.
  
$$
WALLY BARNES