000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...THE MONSOON 
TROUGH HAS BECOME DISTORTED WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS NOW EXTENDING 
FROM 16N96W TO 10N110W TO 10N120W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE 
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS 
THE DEEP TROPICS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 08N78W 
TO 06N96W TO 08N103W TO 07N117W.  

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE EXTREME NW CONUS HAS AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 
32N134W TO 30N143W. A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 
24N115W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 15N140W. AN UPPER CYCLONE 
OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW 
ACROSS OLD MEXICO ALONG 24N102W TO A BASE OVER THE E PACIFIC AT 
15N109W. THESE THREE UPPER FEATURES COMBINE TO DRY OUT THE UPPER 
LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 95W...AND ELSEWHERE 
NW OF LINE FROM 20N106W TO 08N140W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING 
SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CREST OVER THE E PACIFIC AT 
16N102W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING 
CONVECTION OVER GUATEMALA AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST 
OF MEXICO FROM 93W TO 103W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
SPREADS W OVER THE PACIFIC FROM 12N TO 17N E OF 105W BEFORE 
TURING NE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
PORTION OF OLD MEXICO...AND WILL SOON SPREAD NE ACROSS THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER S...THE UPPER FLOW IS EASTERLY OVER THE 
DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...AND THE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED AS FAR W AS 120W.   

AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO NEAR 20N122W. 
NW FLOW IS ENHANCED TO 20 KT WELL NE OF THE RIDGE IN THE AREA N 
OF 26N E OF 118W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH SEAS TO 
8 FT PRIMARILY IN THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL 
WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE BAJA HEAT TROUGH DISSIPATES WITH WINDS 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO ABOUT 15 KT...AND THE SEAS SHOULD 
SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FT BY MIDDAY WED.
  
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION WILL BE REINFORCED AND THE 
ANTICYCLONES WILL STRENGTHEN IN ROUGHLY THE SAME POSITION 
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NE TO E LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL 
INCREASE IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRI NIGHT AND 
SAT. WITH LOW LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUING JUST TO THE S OF PAPAGAYO 
AREA THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN CYCLONIC MOTION ALONG 
09N BETWEEN 85W AND 95W.   

$$
NELSON