000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261741
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N118W TO 08N124W. 
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N124W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE TROUGH E OF 100W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA RESULTING IN
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS 6 FT OR LESS OVER THE REGION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A
WEAK TROUGH N OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 31N135W. A 
HEAT TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS ENHANCING NW WINDS ALONG THE 
WEST COAST OF BAJA WITH 15-20 KT WINDS AND SEAS 6-7 FT EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT N OF 28N E OF 118W. LARGE SCALE WEST
WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE E 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 110W. CONVERGENT W-SW WINDS S
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BETWEEN 06N AND 08W E OF 100W.

GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO 
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS. BENIGN MARINE 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH
SAT MORNING. A PERSISTENT TROUGH N OF THE AREA WILL DISRUPT THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MAINTAIN A WEAK PRES GRADIENT W OF 100W... 
WHICH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI.

$$
MUNDELL