000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N113W TO 11N119W WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 08N130W TO 
06N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT WAS OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS SHIFTED WNW TO JUST W OF OF SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM IT SW TO A SMALL ANTICYCLONE AT 16N132W AND 
SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 12N140W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
VORTEX OFF THE NW PACIFIC U.S. COAST EXTENDS A LONGWAVE TROUGH 
SW THROUGH 32N132W TO 30N140W AND TO W OF THE AREA ALONG 30N. 
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE REGION NW OF THE DEEP TROPICS. THIS 
IS MAINTAINING VERY DRY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO THE NW 
OF THE TROPICS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING 
WSW ARE PRESENT FROM 14N TO 25N AND W OF 117W.
 
TO THE SSE OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW 
BECOMES DIFFLUENT FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W-94W...AND 
CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 84W-88W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF
07N95W. EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD TO NEAR 120W BY THE 
SAME NE TO E FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL 
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED 
JUST TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL DROP S INTO THE 
LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH WED...AND SPIN UP AN UPPER LOW THAT 
MOVES TO NEAR 31N134W BY LATE WED NIGHT. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NE 
OF THE AREA THU WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
REFLECTION WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE FAR NRN WATERS...BUT BE 
ATTENDANT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. HOWEVER...SEAS OF 6-7 
FT IN A N SWELL HAVE MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA...BUT ARE FORECAST BY WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE TO SUBSIDE TO 5 
FT BY THU.

LONG-TERM ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FEW LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS MOVING WWD ACROSS WRN S AMERICA. ENERGY ASSOCIATED 
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL INTO THE LOW
LATITUDES OF THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...LEADING TO ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THIS 
PORTION OF THE PACIFIC...AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...INCLUDING OVER
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N139W...AND REACHES SE TO NEAR 
24N118W. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN A NW TO SE PSN ACROSS THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER TROUGH IS JUST INLAND MEXICO N OF 20N 
WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING STEERED TOWARDS THE COAST UNDER THE NE 
WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SRN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. SCATTEROMETER DATA MON AFTERNOON AND FROM EARLIER
TONIGHT REVEALED RELATIVELY LIGHT NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA TO THE NW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ...WITH LIGHT SLY 
WINDS TO THE S OF THESE SAME FEATURES. THE PRES DIFFERENCE 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TROUGH HAS
INDUCED NW 20 KT WINDS IN THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 
26N E OF 119W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 
KT BY EARLY THU EVENING.

$$
AGUIRRE