000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N113W TO 10N120W WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 06N130W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 121W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT WAS OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS SHIFTED NW TO OVER SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM IT SW TO A SMALL ANTICYCLONE AT 16N132W AND SW TO W OF THE 
AREA AT 12N140W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OFF THE NW 
PACIFIC U.S. COAST EXTENDS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SW THROUGH 32N132W 
TO 30N140W AND TO W OF THE AREA ALONG 30N. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER JUST ABOUT THE 
ENTIRE REGION NW OF THE DEEP TROPICS. THIS IS MAINTAINING VERY 
DRY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO THE NW OF THE TROPICS. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING WSW ARE PRESENT 
FROM 15N TO 26N AND W OF 117W.
 
TO THE SSE OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW 
BECOMES DIFFLUENT FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W-94W...AND 
CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 80W-88W. EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE 
ADVECTED WESTWARD TO NEAR 120W BY THE SAME NE TO E FLOW S OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HRS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED JUST TO THE NW OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WILL DROP S INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH 
WED...SPINNING UP AN UPPER LOW THAT MOVES TO NEAR 31N134W BY 
LATE WED NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NE OF THE AREA THU WHILE 
BECOMING DIFFUSE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION WILL MOVE E 
ACROSS THE FAR NRN WATERS...BUT BE ATTENDANT WITH LIGHT WINDS 
AND LOW SEAS. HOWEVER...SEAS OF 6-7 FT IN A N SWELL HAVE MOVED 
INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT ARE FORECAST BY 
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCES TO SUBSIDE TO 5 FT BY THU.

LONG-TERM ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FEW LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS MOVING WWD ACROSS WRN S AMERICA. ENERGY ASSOCIATED 
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL INTO THE LOW
LATITUDES OF THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...LEADING TO ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THIS
PORTION OF THE PACIFIC INCLUDING NEAR AND OVER MUCH OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N140W...AND REACHES SE TO NEAR 
24N118W. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN A NW TO SE PSN ACROSS THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER TROUGH IS JUST INLAND MEXICO N OF 20N 
WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST 
BEGINNING TO FIRE UP. THE CONVECTION IS BEING STEERED TOWARDS 
THE COAST UNDER THE NE WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE 
OVER THE SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS 
AFTERNOON REVEALED RELATIVELY LIGHT NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA TO THE NW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ...WITH LIGHT SLY 
WINDS TO THE S OF THESE SAME FEATURES. THE PRES DIFFERENCE 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL 
INITIATE NW 20 KT WINDS IN THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 
ABOUT 26N AND E OF 119W BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THU 
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KT.

$$
AGUIRRE