000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUN 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N98W TO 15N112W TO 11N120W THEN 
ITCZ TO 08N127W TO BEYOND 06N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 123W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE N OF BASIN BRINGS DEEP LAYER 
LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO NW CORNER FORCING ANTICYCLONE TO MOVE SE TO 
15N127W.  E PAC CONTINUES UNDER DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS N OF 12N 
W OF 120W WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED.  SECOND ANTICYCLONE 
ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA PROVIDES 
GOOD OUTFLOW FOR CONVECTION ALONG SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS MEXICAN 
MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER MONSOON TROUGH 
AXIS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...WHATEVER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW 
MAY PROVIDE IS TRUMPED BY THE DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS W OF 112W. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
DEEP TROUGH REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE APPROACHES NW CORNER OF 
BASIN BUT USHERS NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED NOR SEAS 
HIGHER THAN 8 FT INTO E PAC...MOST OF THESE STAY W OF 140W.  
TROUGH FORECAST TO LAY ALONG 30N W OF 130W BRING FRESH NW BREEZE 
AND 9 FT SEAS ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 26N MON 
NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE TUE. 

$$
WALLY BARNES