000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250354
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N91W. IT RESUMES 
AGAIN AT 17N106W TO 10N121W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT 
IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 06N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 123W 
-127W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT WAS OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS SHIFTED NW TO THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM IT SW TO A SMALL ANTICYCLONE AT 21N126W AND WNW TO 
22N140W. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AND 
ELONGATED CYCLONIC VORTEX OFF THE NW PACIFIC U.S. COAST IS 
PRESENT TO THE N OF THE ANTICYCLONE. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER JUST ABOUT THE 
ENTIRE REGION NW OF THE DEEP TROPICS. THE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS 
MAINTAINING VERY DRY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS NW OF THE 
TROPICAL MOISTURE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
MOVING WSW ARE PRESENT FROM 15N TO 26N AND W OF 189W. WHAT IS 
LEFT OF A PREVIOUS WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT WAS SSE OF THE 
SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW DEPICTED AS A 
STATIONARY LARGE WEAK LOW TO MID CLOUD SWIRL AT 19.5N115W.
 
TO THE SSE OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW 
BECOMES DIFFLUENT FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...AND 
HELPING TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N
E OF 86W. EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD TO JUST PAST 110W
BY THE SAME NE TO E FLOW NOTED S OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE BROAD 
UPPER TROUGH WILL STRETCH SW ACROSS THE FAR NW AND N PORTIONS OF 
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW CORNER 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SURGE OF N-NE 20 KT WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY 
AN ASCAT PASS SUN AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS 
FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM NEAR 32N131W TO 26N140W BY EARLY 
MON AFTERNOON...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEAS OF 6-7 FT IN A N SWELL 
ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION BEHIND THIS 
TROUGH WITH N-NE 15 KT.

LONG-TERM ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME MINOR 
PERTURBATIONS MOVING WWD  ACROSS WRN S AMERICA. ENERGY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOW 
LATITUDES OF THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY THERE.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA JUST S OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND REACHES SE TO 
NEAR 23N119W. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN NW TO SE PSN ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER TROUGH IS JUST INLAND MEXICO N OF
20N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP ALONG
THIS TROUGH...AND SOME OF IT IS BEING STEERED TOWARDS THE COAST
UNDER THE NE WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE 
SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NEWLY RECEIVED SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES RELATIVELY LIGHT NE-E TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TO THE NW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ...AND LIGHT SLY WINDS 
TO THE S OF THESE SAME FEATURES. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD E TO SE 
ACROSS THE NRN PORTION MON THROUGH TUE...AND INTERACT WITH THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TROUGH ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO
ONCE AGAIN TIGHTEN IN THE NE PORTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS 
20 KT TO BEGIN THERE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. 

$$
AGUIRRE