000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUN 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 10N90W THEN RESUMES FROM A 
WEAK 1007 MB LOW AT 19N108W SW TO 10N120W AND TO 05N130W WHERE 
LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO 05N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 23N136W COVERS MOST OF BASIN N 
OF 12N W OF 110W WITH DRY AND STABLE SUBSIDING AIR MASS KEEPING 
REGION FREE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  MODEL GUIDANCE 
DEEPENS TROUGH AND DIGS IT INTO NW CORNER OF BASIN FORCING 
ANTICYCLONE SE.  SHARP DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 11N125W.  SECOND LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO BRINGS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO MONSOON 
TROUGH.  WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SE OF SECOND ANTICYCLONE PRODUCES 
AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENT FLOW ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION N OF 
12N E OF 99W. 
 
...AT THE LOWER LEVELS... 
HEALTHY 1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NW OF BASIN BRINGS MODERATE 
BREEZE ACROSS NRN LATITUDES OF E PAC INCREASING TO A FRESH NW 
BREEZE ALONG COASTAL WATERS OF CALIFORNIA.  LIGHT TO MODERATE 
TRADE WINDS AND 5-6 FT SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF BASIN W OF 
110W THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  E OF 110W...MONSOON TROUGH HAS 
PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BECOME ACTIVE BUT AFOREMENTIONED 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MAINTAINS STRONG STEADY WIND SHEAR OVER 
REGION.   

$$
WALLY BARNES