000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 10N90W. IT THEN 
RESUMES FROM A WEAK 1008 MB LOW AT 19.5N108W SW TO 10N120W
TO 05N129W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT IT TRANSITIONS
TO THE ITCZ TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 05N92W TO 
05N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
W OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 23N132W MOVING SLOWLY
SE WITH A RIDGE WNW TO 23N140W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE NE TO OVER
NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO HE SW U.S. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD 
UPPER TROUGHING IS PRESENT TO THE N OF THE ANTICYCLONE. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER JUST 
ABOUT THE ENTIRE REGION N OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON AND ITCZ W OF 110W. A STATIONARY UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
OVER INLAND MEXICO AT 20N102W WITH A RIDGE WSW TO 16N116W. STRONG
NE TO E FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ARE ADVECTING
MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS TO THE W THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL REBUILD TO THE SW WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS
...WHILE THE TROUGH RE-ALIGNS TO THE SW AS WELL OVER THE FAR NW
AND N PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

WEAK CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FIRED UP WITHIN 60 NM NE OF THE 
LOW AT 19.5N108W. LONG-TERM ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 
THE ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE FAR ERN PART OF THE AREA S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH MAY ATTRIBUTED TO A TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE THAT
HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER CROSSING NORTHERN 
SOUTH AMERICA BASED ON A STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION AT 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS.

A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL RESULT IN 
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND GENERALLY SUBSIDING SEAS OVER 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE IN A SMALL 
AREA W OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 26N E OF 121W INITIALLY
WITH SEAS OF 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY N IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS...THEN DIMINISH IN 36 HOURS.


$$
AGUIRRE