000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N99W... 
THEN RESUMES FROM 20N108W TO 06N128W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
06N128W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...
EXCELLENT COVERAGE FROM COMPOSITE SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE 
PAST 6-12 HOURS GIVES A DETAILED PICTURE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER 
THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE NEUTRAL POINT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 
MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR 06N128W. WEAKER REVERSE-ORIENTED 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NE INTO A DISSIPATING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
LOCATED S OF CABO SAN LUCAS NEAR 20N109W. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF 
THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH HAS BROKEN AWAY 
AND REORGANIZED AS A SEPARATE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 09-10N E OF 
100W. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PERSISTING AT THE WESTERN END OF 
THE TROUGH NEAR 08N99W. LONG-TERM ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES THE ACTIVE CONVECTION IS MORE THAN LIKELY ASSOCIATED 
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY ALONG 96W S OF 13N. ALTHOUGH NOT 
ANALYZED AS SUCH...IT APPEARS A WAVE FEATURE HAS REDEVELOPED IN 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER CROSSING NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA BASED 
ON A STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AT 10-15 
KT OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS.

A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL RESULT IN 
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND GENERALLY SUBSIDING SEAS OVER 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE IN A SMALL 
AREA W OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 27N E OF 118W. EXPECT 
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH 5-7 FT SEAS AND WINDS 15 KT OR 
LESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND 
SEAS DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 4-5 FT ON MON AND TUE.

$$
MUNDELL