000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220401
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUN 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N83W TO 07N88W TO 08N97W THEN RESUMES FROM 
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 19N109W TO 14N110W TO 9N120W TO 
05N131W.  ITCZ FROM 05N131W TO 04N140W.  SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 83W AND 
96W AND WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS 17N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 96W AND 101W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120-180 NM OF LINE FROM 
18N108W TO 08N120W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W.

...DISCUSSION...
 MONSOON TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRES... 
1010 MB...NOW AT 19N109W.  LOW PRES CENTER WEAKENING FORECAST TO 
BECOME OPEN TROUGH ALONG 108W FROM 17N TO 21N IN 48 HOURS.  SEAS 
8 FT FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 
8 FEET IN 24 HOURS. 

SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT ACROSS E PAC.  LIGHTER 
WINDS ARE DUE TO WEAK SURFACE PRES GRADIENT THAT COVERS ENTIRE 
REGION.  COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 6 FT 
ACROSS BASIN...EXCEPT FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W... 
WHERE THEY REACH 8 FEET.  CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL TO 7 
FT EXTENDS ACROSS DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 100W AND 125W.

GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 1010 MB LOW PRES  
CENTER NEAR W COAST OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN STATIONARY DURING NEXT 
24 TO 48 HOURS...AND IT WILL WEAKEN STEADILY INTO OPEN TROUGH IN 
48 HOURS.  W-SW MONSOON WINDS CONTINUE S OF TROUGH E OF 120W. 
MONSOON WINDS BECOME WEAKER STEADILY DURING NEXT 2 TO 3  DAYS... 
WHILE NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS THAT ARE W OF 120W WILL REMAIN 
WEAKER THAN USUAL.  EXPECT MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS 
ACROSS ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W OF 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR COAST N OF 26N.  BENIGN CONDITIONS 
LIKELY TO CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO TROPICAL SYSTEMS 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

$$
MT