000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUN 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 07N94W...THEN RESUMES 
FROM THE LOW PRES NEAR 19N109W TO 07N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
07N127W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS S OF PANAMA FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 
102W AND 106W. 

...DISCUSSION...
REVERSE-ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY A PERSISTENT AREA 
OF LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 19N109W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS IT ENTRAINS 
DRIER AIR S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ASCAT DATA 
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE W-SW WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W...AND GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW WINDS E OF 100W.

DUE TO A VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WINDS 
ARE LESS THAN 20 KT ALL ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXCEPT FOR A 
SMALL AREA OF NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND 
A NARROW RIBBON OF 15-20 KT S-SW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND FLOW...COMBINED SEAS ARE GENERALLY 
5-6 FT ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT SE OF THE LOW...FROM 13N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 109W...WHERE SEAS ARE 7-8 FT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL 
SOUTHERLY SWELL TO 7 FT EXTENDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 
100W AND 125W.

GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOW NEAR THE W COAST
OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
AND STEADILY WEAKEN. W-SW MONSOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS E OF 120W...BUT BECOME STEADILY WEAKER OVER THE NEXT 
2-3 DAYS WHILE NE TRADE WINDS W OF 120W REMAIN WEAKER THAN USUAL.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE REGION...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W OF NORTHERN BAJA 
NEAR THE COAST N OF 27N. BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO TROPICAL CYCLONES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

$$
MUNDELL