000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210928
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM FROM 1009 MB LOW NEAR 19N109W TO 13N115W TO 
8N126W. ITCZ FROM 8N126W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION  FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 102W-106W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA FROM 32N132W TO 29N140W. A 90-100 KT SW JETSTREAM E OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 29N133W TO 32N129W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW OF THE 
AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N119W WITH RIDGE N ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO 
15N140W. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL SHIFT W AS A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER NW MEXICO MOVES SW TO S OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA TONIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 110W.

.SURFACE 1009 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 19N109W IS EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
LOW WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 250 NM SE 
QUADRANT.

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N134W TO 26N137W. THE TROUGH AND THE HIGH 
PRES NW OF THE AREA HAVE BOTH WEAKENED AND THE WINDS NW OF THE 
TROUGH HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 20 KT.

PRES GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA REMAINS TIGHT 
ENOUGH FOR 20 KT NW WINDS N OF 26N E OF 118W TO THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 105W-130W. THE 
SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI.

$$
DGS