000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210248
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 07N78W TO 07N82W TO 09N88W IN 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE
1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N109W TO 15N110W TO 
10N116W TO 08N120W TO 07N132W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N132W
BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 
18N102W 14N107W 13N111W 09N117W 07N124W 09N130W...AND FROM
03N TO 10N TO THE WEST OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1006 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N109W. EARLIER VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH
GOOD DEFINITION AND LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER. DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS 
SPOTTY NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF 
THE LOW CENTER. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AN AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE 
EAST OF 120W WITH SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FT.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N135W TO 25N137W TO 20N139W. 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH NORTHEASTERLY 
SWELL. THIS TROUGH HAS DISRUPTED THE RIDGING THAT NORMALLY 
EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
LIGHT-TO-MODERATE NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE TO THE 
NORTH OF THE ITCZ. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT 
EXTENDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 113W AND 130W.

GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY AND/OR DRIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. IT WILL WEAKEN STEADILY WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN
20 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 
WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF 
THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF 120W...BUT THEY WILL BECOME STEADILY 
WEAKER DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS 
THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 120W WILL REMAIN WEAKER THAN USUAL. 
EXPECT MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION 
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS STILL TO THE WEST OF 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WITHIN 250 NM OF THE COAST TO THE NORTH 
OF 26N. THE LONG TERM FORECAST INDICATES BENIGN CONDITIONS 
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES.

$$
MT