000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH PANAMA NEAR 8N78W TO NORTHERN 
COSTA RICA NEAR 11N85W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N108W TO 16N110W
TO 11N120W TO 08N127W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N127W TO 
07N130W BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N112W 09N116W 07N121W 
06N125W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W...AND FROM 03N 
TO 10N W OF 130W.FROM

...DISCUSSION...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY A PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N108W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL 
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH LOW CONVECTIVE 
CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER. DEEP 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS SPOTTY NEAR THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER...PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. LARGE SCALE 
CONFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT TO THE WEST OF 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AN AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N
TO THE EAST OF 120W WITH SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FT.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG ROM 30N135W BEYOND 23N140W. MODERATE 
TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH
WITH THE SEAS SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. THIS 
TROUGH HAS DISRUPTED THE RIDGING THAT NORMALLY EXISTS ACROSS THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LIGHT-TO-MODERATE
NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ.
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT EXTENDS ACROSS THE DEEP 
TROPICS BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.

GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND IT WILL
WEAKEN STEADILY WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS
LESS THAN 8 FT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST MONSOON
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF 
120W...BUT THEY WILL BECOME STEADILY WEAKER DURING THE NEXT
2 TO 3 DAYS. NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS THAT ARE TO THE WEST
OF 120W WILL REMAIN WEAKER THAN USUAL. EXPECT MOSTLY BENIGN 
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS STILL TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA WITHIN 250 NM OF THE COAST TO THE NORTH OF 26N.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST INDICATES BENIGN CONDITIONS LIKELY TO 
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO TROPICAL 
CYCLONES.

$$
MT