000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1005 MB LOW NEAR 18N108W TO 
10N119W TO 09N127W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N127W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
A LINE FROM 18N102W TO 07N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS S OF PANAMA FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 81W.

...DISCUSSION...
REVERSE-ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY A PERSISTENT AREA 
OF LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 18N108W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH LOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
WRAPPING AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION IS 
SPOTTY NEAR THE DISTURBANCE...PRIMARILY SE OF THE LOW AS PART OF 
THE LARGE SCALE CONVERGENT SW WIND FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT W OF NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AN AREA N OF 27N E OF 118W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM 30N134W TO 23N140W. MODERATE TO 
FRESH NE WINDS ARE LOCATED NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SUBSIDING 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. THIS TROUGH HAS DISRUPTED THE RIDGING 
THAT NORMALLY EXISTS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
RESULTING IN LIGHT-MODERATE N-NE TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ AXIS.
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT EXTENDS ACROSS THE DEEP 
TROPICS BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.

GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOW NEAR THE W COAST
OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
AND STEADILY WEAKEN WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. W-SW MONSOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS E OF 120W...BUT BECOME STEADILY WEAKER OVER THE NEXT 
2-3 DAYS WHILE NE TRADE WINDS W OF 120W REMAIN WEAKER THAN USUAL.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS STILL 
FOUND W OF NORTHERN BAJA WITHIN 250 NM OF THE COAST N OF 26N. 
LONG TERM FORECAST INDICATES BENIGN CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO TROPICAL CYCLONES.

$$
MUNDELL