000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 19N106W TO 1005 MB LOW 18N107W TO 1010 MB 
LOW 13N116W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 200 NM S OF AXIS FROM 111W-120W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 26N134W TO 20N136W. A 75 KT NLY JETSTREAM NW OF TROUGH AXIS 
FROM 32N133W TO 26N136W...WITH A 90-95 KT SLY JET SE OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 22N133W TO 32N129W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION W OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N116W WITH 
RIDGE N ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. EXCEPT 
FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE JETS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N W OF 110W 
AND FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 125W.

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N130W TO 22N135W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA AND THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING NE WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT NW OF THE TROUGH.

SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1005 MB NEAR 18N107W WITH SW WINDS 20-25 
KT WITHIN 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
180 NM SW QUADRANT  OF THE LOW.

A 1014 MB HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N122W. THE HIGH COMBINED 
WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS PRODUCING A TIGHT ENOUGH 
PRES GRADIENT FOR 20 KT NW WINDS N OF 25N E OF 117W TO THE COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

$$
DGS