000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172154 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUN 17 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES OVER SW CARIB NEAR 12.5N81W AND MEANDERS NW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 19N105W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 17N110W TO SECOND LOW PRES 1009 MB EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N119W TO 02N134W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 89W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 240 NM SE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 109W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... TWIN HIGH PRES CENTERS ARE LOCATED OVER THE E CENTRAL PACIFIC ALONG 149W ON THE N AND S SIDE OF STATIONARY FRONT NW OF THE AREA...WITH 1034 AND 1035 MB...WHILE LOW PRES 1011 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N123W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUPPORTING STRONG N TO NE WINDS NW OF LINE FROM 30N127W TO 15N140W. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO NEAR 136W BY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND LARGE N TO NE SWELL OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. AN ANOMALOUSLY ACTIVE AND STRONG MONSOON TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...EXTENDING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MEANDERING NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...THEN FROM SW MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 02N140W. THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHICH IS TYPICAL WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT. THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE SUPPORTED BY FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WITHIN 270 NM SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PERSISTENT UNSTABLE WEATHER AND RECENT RAINS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MAKES FOR A HIGH POTENTIAL THAT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. IN PARTICULAR... THOSE REGIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN ABUNDANT RAINFALL PRODUCED BY CARLOTTA ARE HIGHEST AT RISK. THIS VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. $$ STRIPLING