000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171539
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN 
MEXICO INTO THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 19N104W TO LOW PRES 
1007 MB EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 16.5N110W TO ANOTHER 
LOW PRES 1007 MB EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N120W TO 
BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S QUADRANT OF LOW NEAR 19N104W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRES 1033 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
35N148W WHILE LOW PRES 1010 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N122W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO 
STRONG N TO NE WINDS NW OF LINE 30N127W TO 13N140W. THE SURFACE 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH N TO NE WINDS 
OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. 

AN ANOMALOUSLY ACTIVE AND STRONG MONSOON TROUGH PREVAILS OVER 
THE FORECAST WATERS EXTENDING FROM SW MEXICO TO PAST 140W. THERE 
ARE CURRENTLY TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHICH IS TYPICAL WITHIN THIS 
FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT. THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE 
SUPPORTED BY FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT NE 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG 
MONSOONAL FLOW TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS MONSOONAL FLOW WILL 
CONTINUE TO ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER PARTS OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH CAN PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...INCLUDING THOSE REGIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY 
SEEN ABUNDANT RAINFALL PRODUCED BY CARLOTTA.  

$$
AL