000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170245
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUN 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE REMNANT CENTER OF CARLOTTA IS BECOMING ILL DEFINED 
TONIGHT...AND AVAILABLE DATA INDICATE THAT WINDS WITH CARLOTTA 
HAS DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KT NEAR THE CENTER...AND CARLOTTA HAS 
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF THE 
REMNANT LOW OF CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 100.3W 1006 MB AT 
0300 UTC MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
ARE 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER 
REMAINS ISOLATED...BUT MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES 
TO OCCUR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF CARLOTTA'S CIRCULATION. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 45 TO 270 NM NE 
QUADRANT AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 90 TO 270 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. THE REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA ARE EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT SLOWLY NW OVER THE NEXT DAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. 
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS 
FAR SOUTHEAST MEXICO...WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE 
ADJACENT TROPICAL E PACIFIC. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE 
DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER RAIN SOAKED TERRAINS. THE THREAT 
FOR RAINFALL LEADING TO LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND 
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N80W NW THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA TO 
FAR SE MEXICO NEAR 17N93W WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED AS A RESULT 
OF CARLOTTA. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN RESUMES FROM 19N109W TO LOW 
PRES 1005 MB EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15.5N110.5W TO 
05N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 
106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 300 
NM SE OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 
15.5N110.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 34N145W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 16N126W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE 
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ALONG 120W HAS WORKED DOWN TO 
NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH A LOW PRES CENTER ASSUMED NEAR 27N121W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THIS LOW IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 25N W 
OF 124W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE UPPER 
LEVEL CUTOFF DRIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE...TO PRODUCE N TO 
NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA N OF 26N 
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. 

A SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER OF 1006 MB IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15.5N110.5W AND CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A 
WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH  TO PRODUCE ACTIVE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM ACROSS THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...AND WITHIN 
300 NM SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THAT REGION...AS FRESH TO 
STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW PERSISTS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N 
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN NE ON MONDAY...WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG 
MONSOONAL FLOW SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO 
MAINTAIN SEAS 8 TO 10 FT WITHIN THIS AREA.

$$
STRIPLING