000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162157 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUN 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA WAS NEAR 17.9N 99.8W 1005 MB AT 2100 UTC...AND ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF CARLOTTA'S CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 30 TO 150 NM ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT OF CARLOTTA...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 90 TO 300 NM ACROSS THE W SEMICIRCLE. WHAT REMAINS OF CARLOTTA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER RAIN SOAKED TERRAINS. THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL LEADING TO LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N75W TO COASTAL GUATEMALA NEAR 14.5N91W WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED AS A RESULT OF CARLOTTA. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN RESUMES FROM 18N106W TO LOW PRES 1006 MB EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N110.5W TO 06N127W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 270 NM SE OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 15N110.5W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 34N143W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N110W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ALONG 110W HAS WORKED DOWN TO NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH A LOW PRES CENTER ASSUMED NEAR 28N122W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THIS LOW IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS N OF 25N BETWEEN 123W AND 136W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF DRIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE...TO PRODUCE N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA N OF 26N TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER OF 1006 MB IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N110.5W AND CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH TO PRODUCE ACTIVE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM ACROSS THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW...AND WITHIN 270 NM SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THAT REGION...AS FRESH TO STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW PERSISTS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN NE ON MONDAY...WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN SEAS 8 TO 10 FT WITHIN THIS AREA. $$ STRIPLING