000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161529
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CARLOTTA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND CENTERED 
NEAR 17.5N 99.5W AT 1500 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF CARLOTTA. THE 
LATEST FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA INLAND AS IT 
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING. CARLOTTA IS 
STILL PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH CAN RESULT IN LIFE 
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 07.5N80W TO 13N90W WHERE 
IT REMAINS FRACTURED AS A RESULT OF CARLOTTA. THE MONSOON TROUGH 
THEN RESUMES FROM 18N107W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB EMBEDDED IN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N111W TO 03N132W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N140W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF 
25N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD 
AS AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 28N120W 
DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE LOW WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT 
DRIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LOCALLY TIGHTER PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH FRESH TO 
STRONG N TO NE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA 
W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 

SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 15N111W WITH FRESH TO STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW WITHIN 
360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST 
TO DRIFT NE...WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW SPREADING 
NORTHWARD.

$$
AL