000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160244 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUN 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS CENTERED AT 15.9N 96.7W AT 0300 UTC OR ABOUT 10 NM NW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO...AND 190 NM ESE OF ACAPULCO...MOVING N-NW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SUGGESTS THAT CARLOTTA HAS MOVED VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR PUERTO ESCONDIDO...AND HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN THERE. AN EYE FEATURE EARLIER TODAY HAS BECOME RAGGED AND FILL IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. RAINBANDS WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WERE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CARLOTTA...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FOUND WITHIN 210 NM NE AND 270 NM SE QUADRANTS OF CARLOTTA. CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO. HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN RAINBANDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL STATES OF CHIAPAS...OAXACA AND GUERRERO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 6-10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS AS HIGH AS 12-15 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRODUCING LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ALL INTEREST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA AND HEAD THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... COMPLEX MONSOON TROUGH STRUCTURE IS BROKEN INTO TWO SEGMENTS... ONE SHORT SEGMENT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 07N74W 1006 MB NW ACROSS THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN AND TERMINATES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS SOUTHERN HONDURAS. A SECOND SEGMENT BEGINS FROM NEAR 18N106W SW THROUGH LOW PRES 14N111.5W 1005 MB TO 04N137W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ CONTINUING ON BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED N OF 04N E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR 14N111.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N OF AXIS FROM 113W-123W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPANS WNW-ESE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN...CENTERED ON TWO UPPER ANTICYCLONES...ONE NEAR 19N119W AND A SECOND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N89W. NE TO E FLOW S OF RIDGE...AND GENERALLY S OF 12N IS PRODUCING SPEED DIVERGENCE AND MAINTAINING FAVORABLE UPPER CONDITIONS FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION. A WEAKENING TUTT AXIS SEPARATES THE TWO HIGHS...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO SW TO NEAR 13N110W...WHERE IT IS INTERACTING FAVORABLY WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND AN EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW...AND PRODUCING PULSES OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. WEAK UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE TUTT AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA HAS PROVIDED AN ENVIRONMENT FOR CARLOTTA TO DEVELOP ITS OWN ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. CARLOTTA HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE MEXICAN COASTLINE AND HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS... SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB AT 35N137W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 23N110W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATIFIED LOW CLOUDS NOTED UNDER RIDGE UMBRELLA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH AND TROUGH ALONG CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE NWLY WINDS N OF 31N PROMPTING FRESH NW TRADES FROM 25N TO 30N. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SW AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THIS WILL RAISE SEAS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER TO NEAR 13 FT. A SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N111.5W WITH STRONG MONSOON WINDS WITHIN 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS THERE 8-10 FT. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MONSOON TROUGH SEGMENT ARE FORECAST TO DRIFT N NEXT 48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN A LONG FETCH OF FRESH MONSOON WINDS...EXTENDING TO NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST BY SUN. $$ STRIPLING