000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152218 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUN 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS CENTERED AT 14.8N 96.3W AT 2100 UTC OR ABOUT 65 NM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...AND 280 NM ESE OF ACAPULCO...MOVING NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES HAS DROPPED TO 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT A SOLID BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE EYE OF CARLOTTA WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER. OUTER RAINBANDS ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE HAVE BEEN MOVING ASHORE AND WEAKENING ALL MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND HAVE SPREAD INLAND NEARLY 120 MILES THIS AFTERNOON...AND NW TO ACAPULCO. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK SHOWS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA MOVING INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND ACAPULCO BETWEEN 12-24 HR. INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN RAINBANDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL STATES OF CHIAPAS AND OAXACA AND GUERRERO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 6-10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS AS HIGH AS 12-15 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS... PRODUCING LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ALL INTEREST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA AND HEAD THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... COMPLEX MONSOON TROUGH STRUCTURE IS BROKEN INTO TWO SEGMENTS... ONE SEGMENT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 07N74W 1006 MB NW ACROSS THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN AND TERMINATES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER CENTRAL GUATEMALA. A SECOND SEGMENT BEGINS FROM NEAR 16.5N105W SW TO LOW PRES 13.5N110W 1006 MB TO 05N138W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ CONTINUING ON BEYOND 04.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED N OF 04N E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR 13.5N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 113W-119W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDING SPANS WNW-ESE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN...CENTERED ON TWO UPPER ANTICYCLONES...ONE NEAR 20N119W AND A SECOND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 17N90W. NE TO E FLOW S OF RIDGE...AND GENERALLY S OF 12N IS PRODUCING SPEED DIVERGENCE AND MAINTAINING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION. A WEAKENING TUTT AXIS SEPARATES THE TWO HIGHS...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO SW TO NEAR 14N107W...WHERE IT IS INTERACTING FAVORABLY WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND AN EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW...AND PRODUCING PULSES OF DEEP CONVECTION. WEAK UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE TUTT AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA HAS PROVIDED AN ENVIRONMENT FOR CARLOTTA TO DEVELOP ITS OWN ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF CARLOTTA IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE INTERACTION WITH LAND BEGINS SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS... SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB AT 35N137W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 23N110W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATIFIED LOW CLOUDS NOTED UNDER RIDGE UMBRELLA. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AGAINST TROUGH ALONG CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS PRODUCING GALE FORCE NWLY WINDS N OF 31N PROMPTING FRESH NW TRADES FROM 25N TO 30N THEN INCREASING TO A STRONG BREEZE SAT AND SUN. SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB AT 13.5N110W WITH STRONG MONSOON WINDS WITHIN 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS 8-10 FT. LOW AND ASSOCIATED MONSOON TROUGH SEGMENT ARE FORECAST TO DRIFT N NEXT 48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN LONG FETCH OF FRESH MONSOON WINDS...EXTENDING TO NEAR MEXICAN COAST BY SUN. $$ STRIPLING