000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUN 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 95.3W AT 0900 
UTC OR ABOUT 400 NM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING NW OR 320 
DEGREES AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE BANDS 
HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED WITH 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM W AND 90 NM E 
SEMICIRCLES OF OF CARLOTTA. CARLOTTA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A 
HURRICANE LATER TODAY. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF 
CARLOTTA NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON FRI AND MOVE 
NEAR THE COAST  SAT.  HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING IN BANDS RAIN WILL 
AFFECT PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEAST MEXICO TODAY AHEAD 
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS 
CARLOTTA APPROACHES LAND ON SAT. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL 
ACROSS THIS AREA IS THEREFORE HIGH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO 12N90W THEN FROM 18N108W 7N125W TO 
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N 
BETWEEN 103W-1110W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 20N120W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER NW TO 31N136W 
ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS E TO CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W 
OF 105W.

SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING A TIGHT 
ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR 20 KT NLY WINDS N OF 25N W OF 120W AND 
FROM 20N-25N W OF 127W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 
20-25 KT SAT. OTHERWISE A RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 111W.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N111W. SW WINDS 20-25 
KT ARE WITHIN 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE...WITH SEAS 8-10 FT.

$$
DGS