000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150241
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUN 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 94.7W AT 0300 
UTC OR ABOUT 390 NM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING NNW OR 330 
DEGREES AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE BANDS 
HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED...WITH 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IN THIS SOLID BAND WITHIN 120 NM NW 
QUADRANT OF CARLOTTA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG OCCURRING IN BANDS WITHIN 210 NM NE AND 180 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES OF CARLOTTA. ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
ARE FAVORABLE FOR CARLOTTA TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN 
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT 
WITH THE MEXICAN COASTLINE BEFORE 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST CALLS 
FOR CARLOTTA TO REACH HURRICANE FORCE FRIDAY MORNING. ON 
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD APPROACH THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND MOVE NEAR THE COAST  
SATURDAY.  HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING IN BANDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF 
GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEAST MEXICO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS CARLOTTA 
APPROACHES LAND ON SATURDAY. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS 
AREA IS THEREFORE HIGH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 08N74W 
TO 10N90W...WHERE IT HAS SEPARATED FROM T.S. CARLOTTA...THEN 
RESUMES W OF T.S. CARLOTTA AT 13N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N110W 
1005 MB TO 09N123W TO 04N132W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ... 
CONTINUING TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N137W IN 
COMBINATION WITH LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN US CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT GALE FORCE N WINDS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF N 
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH NLY FLOW TO 20 KT AND 8-10 FT SEAS 
IN N SWELL EXTENDING S TO 26N BETWEEN 120W AND 129W. THE HIGH 
CENTER WILL DRIFT SW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND STRENGTHENING 
SLIGHTLY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRES TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES 
WILL PRODUCE N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 24N BETWEEN 124W AND 
137W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WITH N WINDS 25 TO 3O KT N OF 27N. 
SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 13 FT ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THIS AREA 
ON SAT. 

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS SEPARATED INTO TWO 
SEGMENTS...WITH ONE SEGMENT CURRENTLY FROM COLOMBIA TO JUST NE 
OF T.S. CARLOTTA...AND A SECOND SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM W OF 
CARLOTTA SW THROUGH AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SPANNING 
BETWEEN 102W AND 130W. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT SURROUNDING THE 
EASTERN TROUGH SEGMENT...AND CONDITIONS HAVE STABILIZED WITH 
DRIER AIR. THUS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING E OF 90W. 
HOWEVER... A LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH SW-W WINDS SOUTH 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 125W...AND IS FORCING ACTIVE 
CONVECTION S OF THE AXIS THERE. THE ELONGATED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ACROSS THIS AREA HAS BEGUN TO EVOLVE INTO TWO BOOK 
END VORTICES...WITH CONVECTION ACTIVE THE PAST 6-8 HOURS ACROSS 
THE W END OF THIS PORTION OF THE LOBE. AS CARLOTTA MOVES NW AND 
TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AFTER 48 HOURS...THIS W SEGMENT OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WILL ALSO LIFT N IN TANDEM...WITH SW MONSOONAL 
FLOW ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO SE AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS 
OF MEXICO. ACTIVE CONVECTION CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NW HALF OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NW AND BEGIN 
TO FOCUS ACROSS SE MEXICO IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH INCREASING 
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES...75-125 MM...WITH ISOLATED 
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10-12 INCHES...250-300 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN 
STATES OF GUERRERO... OAXACA...CHIAPAS...AS WELL AS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

$$
STRIPLING