000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUN 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA CENTERED NEAR 10.9N 93.6W AT 14/1500 UTC 
OR ABOUT 515 NM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING NW OR 325 DEGREES
AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR CARLOTTA TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
BEFORE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. THE FORECAST 
CALLS FOR CARLOTTA TO REACH HURRICANE FORCE BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY 
NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD 
APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND MOVE NEAR THE 
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF 
CARLOTTA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER. HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT 
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEAST MEXICO AHEAD 
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHIP 
CALLSIGN V7DI7 NEAR THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA REPORTED SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 30 KT AND SEAS TO 16 FT THIS MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 11N87W THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. 
CARLOTTA AT 09N98W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N109W 1007 MB TO 07N135W.  
ITCZ FROM 07N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 106W AND 113W...AND FROM 10N TO 
11.5N BETWEEN 116W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N138W IN COMBINATION WITH 
LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN US IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE N WINDS 
ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH NLY FLOW TO 20 KT 
AND 8-9 FT SEAS IN N SWELL EXTENDING S TO 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 
130W. THE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE SLIGHTLY 
STRENGTHENING. THE HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N120W. THE 
MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS AN AREA OF TRADE WINDS 
WITH SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT FROM 12N TO 23N W OF 130W. UNDER THIS 
WEATHER PATTERN...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS 
THE N WATERS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH SEAS NEAR 12 FEET. 
ALSO...THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES WILL INCREASE.  

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH A LARGE 
SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH SW-W WINDS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS
PARTICULARLY S OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 13N109W. 
THIS LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS AS IT MOVES MAINLY WWD. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS 
ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. S TO SW 
WIND FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF CARLOTTA WILL CHANNEL ABUNDANT LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE 
MEXICO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. CARLOTTA IS 
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 
INCHES...75-125 MM...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10-12 
INCHES...250-300 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO... 
OAXACA...CHIAPAS...AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF 
GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS 
AND MUDSLIDES.

$$
GR