000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140252 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JUN 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOW IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...AND BULLETINS HAVE BEEN INITIATED FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E. AT 0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 92.2W MOVING NW NEAR 7 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30 KT EXTEND OUT TO 50 NM FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED SOME 400 NM TO THE NW OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT W THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS HAS ACTED TO LESSEN THE SW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE DEPRESSION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEPRESSION TO INTENSIFY STEADILY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...BEFORE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN QUICKLY...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THURSDAY MORNING...AND A HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE WATCHES ARE THEREFORE BEING ISSUED FOR COASTAL MEXICO TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING IN CLUSTERS AND BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEAST MEXICO AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 09N72W 1007 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N82W 1008 MB TO T.D. THREE-E AT 9.0N92.2W 1004 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N108W 1006 MB TO 06N120W TO LOW PRES 07.5N131W 1009 MB...THEN TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ... CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND LOW PRES NEAR 07N140W 1009 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 270 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 310 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY THIS EVENING WITH SW TO W MONSOONAL WINDS EXTENDING WEST TO NEAR 135W. THE TROUGH REMAINS NARROW BETWEEN 100W AND 120W...WHICH HAS HELPED TO INDUCE SEVERAL LOW LEVEL LOWS WITHIN THE TROUGH THROUGH THIS AREA. ONE OF THESE LOWS NEAR 108W IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER WITHIN THE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE E END OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WITH SW MONSOON FLOW PERSISTING S OF THE TROUGH AND W OF 110W. VERY WET WEATHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS W INTO SE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 41N134W IN COMBINATION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US IS FORCING NW GALES OFFSHORE OF N AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH NLY FLOW AT 20 KT AND 8 FT SEAS IN N SWELL EXTENDING S INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN 118W AND 130W AND N OF 26N. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT STAY BELOW GALE FORCE WITH SEAS BELOW 12 FEET. ...GAP WINDS... THE COMBINATION OF A MODERATE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE DEVELOPING LOW ARE PRODUCING A SHORT AND NARROW PLUME OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN SHORTLY...THE GAP WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 20 KT BY THE MORNING. $$ STRIPLING