000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122208 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUN 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHOWN MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR EPAC BETWEEN 86W AND 94W... WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SUGGESTED NEAR 07N87W. GAP WIND FLOW ACCELERATING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS PRODUCING AN ELONGATED PLUME OF NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS AREA...WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1544 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR 08.5N89W. THIS CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILING BETWEEN 80W AND 120W...WHERE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTS. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT HAS A MODERATE CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS IT SHIFTS NW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...SUGGESTING IS COULD DEEPEN QUICKLY. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES 1004 MB OVER COLOMBIA NEAR FROM 07N75W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 08.5N89W TO 12N99W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB NEAR 13N118W TO 06N125W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 07N136W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 05N E OF 80W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND 270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 112W. ...DISCUSSION... SCATTEROMETER COVERAGE AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL FRESH WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS...PARTICULARLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W...WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN W OF 110W. THE PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 37N139W HAS RELAXED THE PAST 24-48 HOURS...ALLOWING N TO NE WINDS W OF NORTHERN BAJA TO DIMINISH...WHILE THE NE-E TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 20 KT. THE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY KEEPING THE FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS...MAINLY N OF 27N...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INCREASING WINDS TO LIKELY GALE FORCE N OF THE AREA AND NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL...RAISING SEAS TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 30N120W BY THU. E OF 120W...THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED AND NOW EXTENDS DEEPER INTO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...AND EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA/PANAMA TO A WEAKENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 12N120W. IN ADDITION TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE...AND THE LOW ALONG 120W...TWO TO THREE OTHER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH...BUT ARE LIKELY TRANSIENT AND NOT LIKELY TO PERSIST BEYOND 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES DEPICTED CLASSIC MONSOONAL WINDS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH AREAS OF SW TO W WINDS NEAR 20 KT...FUELING ACTIVE CONVECTION... FROM 82W TO 110W. TPW ANIMATIONS SHOW ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONVERGING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH MAKING FOR A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. VERY LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA IS ALLOWING FOR THE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO FURTHER DIVERT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION...PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE AND SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING DUE TO THE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO AND LOWER PRES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. $$ STRIPLING