000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N96W 1008 
MB TO 10N102W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N112W 1009 MB TO 07N122W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N122W TO 
06N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-180 NM IN THE E 
QUADRANT OF THE FIRST LOW. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 110W AND ALSO BETWEEN 120-180 NM IN THE NW 
QUADRANT OF THE SECOND LOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N99W
TO 04N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

TWO SURFACE LOWS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE EASTERN 
LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 12N96W AT 1008 MB. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 
NEAR 12N98W IN 24 HOURS WITH NO DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED. THE 
WESTERN LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR 13N112W OR ABOUT 800 MILES S OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AT 1009 MB. 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS BROAD LOW IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AS IT DRIFTS 
W OR W-NW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION FOR 
BOTH LOWS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

THE EDGE OF AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH 
NORTHERLY WINDS ATTEMPTING TO BREACH THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 
125W AND 132W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL ACCOMPANYING 
THESE WINDS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD 
TO 24N BY 48 HOURS WHILE THE SWELL GRADUALLY BUILDS TO 10 FT. 

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES AREA 
SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY MID WEEK. THE POSSIBLE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK NW INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OR CENTRAL AMERICA LATER THIS WEEK WHILE BECOMING 
STRONGER. THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS 
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO FRESH W-SW 
WINDS S OF THE TROUGH. NEITHER OF THESE MODELS DEVELOPS A 
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRES SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK LOW 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH UNLESS MORE SUPPORT FOR THE GFS 
SOLUTION OCCURS.

MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE 
SEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LITTLE 
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. CYCLONIC VORTICITY FROM THE ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS 
MAY AID INITIAL SPIN-UP OF ANY NEW LOW PRES AREA THAT MAY 
DEVELOP IN THIS GENERAL REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SE MEXICO 
BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO...AND LOWER PRES IN THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE TUE EVENING AND WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH WED EVENING UNDER THIS SCENARIO.

$$
LEWITSKY