000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1007 MB CENTERED AT 10N110W REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MONSOON 
TROUGH UNDER FAVORABLE LOW SHEAR UPPER LEVEL...WARM SST AND 
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.  SYSTEM SHOWING SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN CURVING BANDS.  
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER 
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FORMING WITHIN 
240 NM NW AND SE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 10N91W TO 
13N103W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 10N110W TO 09N117W THEN ITCZ TO 
07N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N 
TO 12N E OF 105W.  NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES AT 10N110W.

...DISCUSSION...
MONSOON TROUGH SHOWS LOW PRES SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AT 10N110W AND 
A DEVELOPING SECOND LOW PRES CENTER AT 10N91W. DIVERGING FLOW 
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONE AT 19N105W IS ENHANCING 
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 111W.
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS FOCUS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT E 
OF 100W...WHILE WEAKENING LOW PRES AT 10N110W. HOWEVER... 
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN REGION DURING NEXT 24-48 HRS 
MAY OPEN DOOR FOR MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO 
OCCUR. PRESENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION 
OF LOW PRES AT 10N110W WITH WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS AWAY FROM A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHILE DEVELOPING THE SECOND LOW PRES STILL 
NEEDING MORE THAN 48 HRS TO INTENSIFY.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB AT 37N136W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING 
SE ACROSS NW PORTION OF THE AREA TO 20N114W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
WITH 1010 MB LOW PRES OVER SRN CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN FRESH NLY 
WINDS ALONG COASTAL WATERS N OF 30N. NW TO N SWELL WITH SEAS OF 
8-10 FT CONTINUE TO INTRUDE N OF 24N W OF 118W.

STRONG ELY WINDS OVER WRN CARIBBEAN SEEPING ACROSS NICARAGUA 
INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO PROMPTING FRESH E WINDS MON AND INCREASING 
TO STRONG BREEZE BY EARLY MON THROUGH TUE AND BEYOND.

$$
WALLY BARNES