000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101529
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES 1008 MB CENTERED NEAR 10N108W 
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND IN A FAVORABLE 
LOW-SHEAR UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION 
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 
THAT CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH BANDS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FORMING WITHIN 240 NM NW AND SE. 
NHC TROPICAL OUTLOOK HAS GIVEN THE SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 09N91W TO 
12N103W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 10N108W TO 08N117W. ITCZ FROM 
08N117W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB TO 07N140W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH FROM 79W TO 81W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N108W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 120W TO 126W AND 
FROM 132W TO 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE E OF 120W...WITH A LOW
INTENSIFYING NEAR 10N108W AND ANOTHER LOW FORMING NEAR 09N91W. 
BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
LOCATED NEAR 17.5N104W IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...MAINLY E OF 110W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED N OF 12N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W... 
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA 
IN WESTERN PANAMA. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHIFTED THE FOCUS 
FOR TC DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST TO E OF 100W...AND WEAKENING THE 
WESTERN LOW SITUATED NEAR 10N108W. HOWEVER...THE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WILL REMAIN IN PLACE 
FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ALLOWING A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 
CYCLO-GENESIS TO OCCUR BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR INHIBITS 
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO FAVOR 
INTENSIFICATION OF LOW PRES AREAS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WILL USE A BLEND OF GLOBAL MODELS FOR 
CONSENSUS FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA TO 
AROUND 20N114W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH 
ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 20 KT N 
TO NE WINDS N OF 27N W OF 118W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE 
PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. NW TO N SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-10 
FT CONTINUES TO INVADE THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W 
AND 133W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS N OF THE AREA ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE IS 
MAINTAINING COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS GENERALLY AROUND 6-7 FT N OF 
THE ITCZ W OF 125W.

EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 
9 FT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS FRESH 
TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FUNNELS THROUGH THE GAP. THE 
WINDS ARE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
GR