000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100345
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUN 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1007 MB AT 09N106W SITS EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH JUST 
SE UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONE AT 16N108W. GOOD ANTICYCLONIC TURNING 
ALLOWS LOW PRES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AT LOWER 
LEVELS...LIFT IT WITH NUMEROUS DEEP STRONG CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW
AT UPPER LEVELS. STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON INTENSIFYING
TO TROPICAL SYSTEM LOW PRES WITHIN 24 HRS WHILE DYNAMICAL 
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER...MORE LIKE 48-60 HRS. BUT BOTH CAMPS AGREE 
TO TRACK IT W JUST ALONG 10N.  PRESENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF LOW PRES CENTER WITH 
BANDS FORMING WITHIN 240 NM SW...SE AND N.      

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N99W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB 
AT 09N106W TO 08N116W THEN ITCZ TO 07N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF AXIS TO 04N E 
93W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW 
PRES AT 09N106W EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 
113W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
126W TO 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED CYCLONE AT 21N143W FORCES STRONG 95 KT JET CORE 
INTO BASIN ALONG 12N W OF 133W.  SHARP TROUGH WILL TURN JET N AS 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ON POSITION AT 16N109W NEAR SURFACE LOW 
PRES. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SST EXPECTED TO PROVIDE 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW PRES TO INTENSIFY. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1031 MB AT 37N137W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 16N110W 
AND COMBINES WITH 996 MB LOW PRES RIGHT OVER SRN TIP OF NEVADA 
TO FORCE GALE FORCE WINDS N TO 31N E OF 126W AND STRONG NW TO N 
BREEZE WITH SEAS 9-10 FT FROM 25N TO 31N. GALES AND FRESH NE 
TRADES ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS 
HIGH PRES IS FORCED NE. 

$$
WALLY BARNES