000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUN 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 09N105W SITS EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH JUST 
SE UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONE AT 15N109W.  GOOD ANTICYCLONIC TURNING
ALLOWS LOW PRES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AT LOWER 
LEVELS...LIFT IT WITH NUMEROUS DEEP STRONG CONVECTION AND 
OUTFLOW IT AT UPPER LEVELS.  STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE 
ON INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL SYSTEM LOW PRES WITHIN 24 HRS WHILE 
DYNAMICAL SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER...MORE LIKE 72 HRS.  BUT BOTH 
CAMPS AGREE TO TRACK IT W JUST N OF 10N.  PRESENTLY...NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF LOW PRES CENTER 
WITH BANDS FORMING WITHIN 240 NM N AND SE.        

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 12N99W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB 
AT 09N105W TO 06N116W THEN ITCZ TO 06N123W TO 07N130W TO BEYOND 
07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 
AXIS TO 05N E 83W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW PRES AT 09N105W EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 
101W AND 111W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 127W TO 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED CYCLONE AT 20N144W FORCES STRONG 100 KT JET CORE 
INTO BASIN ALONG 12N W OF 133W.  SHARP TROUGH WILL TURN JET N AS 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ON POSITION ABOVE SURFACE LOW PRES.   
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SST EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW PRES TO INTENSIFY. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB AT 38N136W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 20N115W 
AND COMBINES WITH 1000 MB LOW PRES RIGHT OVER SRN TIP OF NEVADA 
TO FORCE GALE FORCE WINDS N TO 31N E OF 126W AND STRONG NW TO N 
BREEZE WITH SEAS 9 TO 10 FT FROM 25N TO 31N.  GALES AND FRESH NE 
TRADES ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS 
HIGH PRES IS FORCE NE. 

$$
WALLY BARNES