000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUN 9 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N91W TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES 1009 
MB NEAR 09N107W TO 06N127W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N127W TO 07N140W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 101W AND 113W. 

...DISCUSSION...
DIVERGENGE ALOFT FROM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
NEAR 12N108W IS ALLOWING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 09N107W TO GROW AND PERSIST. ANIMATED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
IS LOCATED UNDER THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY...AND SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOWS CYCLONIC WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE 
NHC TROPICAL OUTLOOK EXPECTS SLOW DEVELOPMENT...WITH A LOW 10 
PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA TO 
AROUND 19N116W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS N OF THE AREA 
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING 8-9 FT NW 
SWELL N OF 28N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 125W. A LARGE AREA OF 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS LOCATED FROM 08N TO 25N W OF 125W 
IS MAINTAINING COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS GREATER THAN 8 FT S OF THE 
RIDGE. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THRUGH SUN AS HIGH 
PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS...WITH SEAS DIMINISHING TO 6-7 FT.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE LOW PRES 
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N107W EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 
IT MOVES W-NW TO AROUND 12N117W BY TUE. AS LONG AS UPPER LEVEL 
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY... 
BUT IT APPEARS THE GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF AND UKMET 
MODELS ARE FAVORING TC DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST NEAR CENTRAL 
AMERICA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING 
TOWARD AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE LOW PRES SYSTEMS 
FORMING OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS. WILL GO ALONG WITH GFS TRACK OF 
THE LOW ALREADY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH...WHILE KEEPING THE 
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER LESS THAN 25-30 KT.

$$
MUNDELL