000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N89W THEN CONTINUE FROM 
13N96W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 09N100W TO 09N107W TO 07N118W THEN 
ITCZ TO 06N130W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB AT 08N136W TO BEYOND 
05N140W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM S
OF AXIS FROM 80W TO 85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
150-180 NM OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 21N145W HAS SHARP TROUGH EXTEND TO 
23N140W TO NW MEXICO WITH VERY DRY AND STABLE SUBSIDING AIR MASS 
N OF AXIS.  SECOND TROUGH EXTEND FROM CYCLONE TO 09N129W WITH 
DRY AIR INHIBITING ANY CONVECTION AROUND SURFACE LOW PRES 1011 
MB AT 08N136W.  FURTHER E...BROAD MID / UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
AT 12N107W PROVIDES GOOD OUTFLOW CONDITIONS TO SURFACE LOW PRES 
CENTER 1010 MB AT 10N100W ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE 
AND ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION W OF LOW PRES.  

ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL REMAIN DRY AND ALMOST ZONAL AS RIDGE 
CREST IS FLATTENED BY LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL N OF BASIN.  

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
PERSISTENT SURFACE 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 37N139W MAINTAIN 
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 
128W...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUN AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS 
NE.

SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB AT 10N100W EMBEDDED IN MONSOON 
TROUGH RIGHT UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MENTIONED 
ABOVE.  ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM 06N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 100W TO 103W.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW INTENSIFYING LOW PRES 
DRIFTING W-NW BUT WITHOUT TROPICAL ORGANIZATION.  MODELS 
SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN TRACK BEYOND 72 HRS WITH GFS CONTINUING IT W 
ALONG MONSOON TROUGH BUT ECMWF AND UKMET TAKING A MORE NLY TRACK.

FURTHER E...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE EXTEND RIDGE 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA UNTO SW CARIBBEAN ADVECTING ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE INTO GULF OF PANAMA.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED S OF MONSOON TROUGH FROM 80W TO 85W.  

$$
WALLY BARNES