000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUN 8 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N96W TO 07N120W THEN ITCZ TO 1010 
MB LOW PRES AT 08N132W TO BEYOND 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF AXIS TO 04N FROM 95W TO 115W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 122W TO 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS NRN BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 22N132W.  
FLATTENED CREST OF MID/UPPER RIDGE PROVIDES VERY DRY ZONAL WIND 
FLOW FROM 15N-25N E OF 118W. ANTICYCLONE AT 31N136W EXTEND DRY 
AND STABLE AIR SLOT N OF 25N DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. DEVELOPING CYCLONE NEAR 22N132W EXPECTED TO MOVE SW 
AND DEEPEN THROUGH SAT ALLOWING RIDGE TO REBUILD ALONG 115W.  
CYCLONE PROVIDE GOOD OUTFLOW FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
SURFACE LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 08N132W.  

DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN TROPICS ALONG MONSOON TROUGH
AND ITCZ CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRES DESCRIBED 
BELOW.  

...AT THE LOW LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB NW OF AREA AT 32N145W HAS RIDGE EXTEND 
SE TO 17N100W.  PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOW PRES 1003 MB 
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG W COAST 
N OF 31N AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS N OF 23N E 
OF 127W.  FRESH NE TRADES FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 127W.

LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB AT 08N132W PRESENTLY STATIONARY EXPECTED 
TO DRIFT W FRI AND SAT. FRESH NE BREEZE WITHIN 120 NM IN NW 
QUADRANT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOSTLY S AND E OF CENTER DUE 
TO UPPER LEVEL NWLY WINDS. DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NW OF 
CENTER LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION IN NEXT 24-48 HRS. LOW PRES 
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN ITCZ AND OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SO NO TROPICAL ORGANIZATION EXPECTED 
DESPITE INCREASE IN CONVECTION. 

$$
WALLY BARNES