000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N94W TO 09N101W TO 06N118W TO 
08N124W THEN ITCZ TO 09N128W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES AT 08N132W TO 
BEYOND 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION  
S OF AXIS TO 05N FROM 96W TO 111W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS FROM 120W TO 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS NRN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 20N136W.  
FLATTENED CREST OF MID/UPPER RIDGE PROVIDES VERY DRY ZONAL WIND 
FLOW FROM 15N-25N E OF 120W.  ANTICYCLONE AT 31N137W EXTEND DRY 
AND STABLE AIR SLOT N OF 25N DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE.  DEVELOPING CYCLONE NEAR 20N136W EXPECTED TO MOVE W 
AND DEEPEN THROUGH SAT ALLOWING RIDGE TO REBUILD ALONG 120W.  
CYCLONE PROVIDE GOOD OUTFLOW FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
SURFACE LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 08N132W.  

DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN TROPICS ALONG MONSOON 
TROUGH AND ITCZ CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRES 
DESCRIBED ABOVE.  

...AT THE LOW LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB NW OF AREA AT 31N145W HAS RIDGE EXTEND 
SE TO 15N112W.  PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOW PRES 1007 MB 
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG W COAST 
N OF 31N AND STRONG NW TO N WINDS N OF 24N E OF 127W.  FRESH NE 
TRADES FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 127W.

LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB AT 08N132W PRESENTLY STATIONARY EXPECTED 
TO DRIFT W FRI AND SAT.  FRESH NE BREEZE WITHIN 120 NM IN NW 
QUADRANT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF CENTER DUE TO 
UPPER LEVEL WLY WINDS.  DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NW OF 
CENTER LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION IN NEXT 24-48 HRS.  LOW PRES 
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN ITCZ AND OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SO NO TROPICAL ORGANIZATION EXPECTED 
DESPITE INCREASE IN CONVECTION. 

$$
WALLY BARNES