000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070352
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 12N94W TO 07N120W THEN ITCZ TO 
1010 MB LOW PRES AT 08N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS E OF 
103W AND FROM 120W TO 131W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM OF AXIS FROM 103W TO 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N114W TO 18N140W BRINGS MORE DRY 
SUBSIDING AIR MASS INTO NW PORTION OF E PAC AND FLATTENING RIDGE 
PREVIOUSLY ALONG 120W DISPLACING IT AND ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT 
OF CYCLONE IN W PART OF BASIN NEAR 18N136W. THIS DEVELOPMENT 
COULD INCREASE DIVERGENCE IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE DEEP 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRES PRESENTLY AT 
08N130W. ELSEWHERE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY ACROSS E PAC EXCEPT 
ALONG MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AS FLOW OF MOISTURE OVER SOUTH AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA MAINTAINS SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED DEEP 
CONVECTION ALONG AXIS ALL THE WAY ACROSS BASIN E OF MENTIONED 
LOW PRES.     

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
BROAD HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB AT 32N140W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING TO 
18N118W.  GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAINST 999 MB LOW PRES OVER 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH GALE WINDS EXTENDING ALONG COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA N OF 30N AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE FROM 30N TO 
26N E OF 124W. REPORTED SEAS 13-15 FT ARE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE 
AND INTEGRATED INTO ANALYSIS AND FORECAST.  WINDS DIMINISH IN 
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY BUT 10-12 FT NW SWELLS 
EXPECTED TO LINGER PAST FORECAST PERIOD.     

LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB AT 08N130W MOVING W 6 KT EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE DEEP CONVECTION AS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS TO ITS 
NW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SPREADS OVER SYSTEM. FRESH NE SURFACE 
WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN 150 NM IN NW QUADRANT OF SYSTEM. NO 
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FORECAST AS LOW PRES REMAINS SO DEEPLY 
EMBEDDED IN ITCZ AXIS.

$$
WALLY BARNES