000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 12N90W TO 08N114W THEN 
ITCZ TO 1010 MB LOW PRES AT 08N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF 
AXIS E OF 103W AND FROM 120W TO 130W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 103W TO 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N116W TO 18N140W BRINGS MORE DRY 
SUBSIDING AIR MASS INTO NW PORTION OF E PAC AND FLATTENING CREST 
OF RIDGE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 120W.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES E 
ALLOWING DEVELOPMENT OF CYCLONE IN W PART OF BASIN NEAR 18N136W. 
THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD INCREASE DIVERGENCE IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
AND ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRES 
PRESENTLY AT 08N130W.  ELSEWHERE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY 
ACROSS E PAC EXCEPT ALONG MONSOON TROUGH / ITCZ AS FLOW OF 
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA MAINTAINS SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AXIS ALL THE WAY ACROSS 
BASIN E OF MENTIONED LOW PRES.     

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
BROAD HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB AT 32N137W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
15N115W.  GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAINST 1004 MB LOW PRES OVER 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH GALE WINDS EXTENDING ALONG COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA N OF 30N AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE FROM 30N TO 
26N E OF 124W.  REPORTED SEAS 13-15 FT ARE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE 
AND INTEGRATED INTO ANALYSIS AND FORECAST.  WINDS DIMINISH IN 
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY BUT 10-12 FT NW SWELLS 
EXPECTED TO LINGER PAST FORECAST PERIOD.     

LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB AT 08N130W MOVING W 12 KT EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE DEEP CONVECTION AS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS TO ITS 
NW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SPREADS OVER SYSTEM.  FRESH NE SURFACE 
WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN 150 NM IN NW QUADRANT OF SYSTEM.  NO 
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FORECAST AS LOW PRES REMAINS SO DEEPLY 
EMBEDDED IN ITCZ AXIS.

$$
WALLY BARNES