000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060947 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUN 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N100W TO 08N115W WHERE IT THEN TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ EXTENDS TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N127W TO 05N132W AND TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S AND 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 125W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING EWD IS OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM JUST W OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NEWD TO THE SW U.S. MID/UPPER RIDGING...FLATTENING WITH TIME... EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 25N WITH ITS MEAN RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 25N116W 19N116W TO 17N114W TO NEAR 12N109W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA SW THROUGH 32N122W TO 25N128W TO 16N138W. NLY UPPER FLOW IS PRESENT THIS TROUGH. IN THE EASTERN PORTION...A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM WRN TEXAS SW TO 22N104W THEN SE TO 13N101W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING FOR RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE FAR EASTERN TROUGH. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SSW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE W OF A LINE FROM 17N120W TO 11N130W TO 10N140W. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO BETWEEN THE MID/LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AND BROAD SCALE UPPER RIDGING PRESENT N OF 08N E OF THE TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS ANCHORED OVER NW NICARAGUA. LONG TERM SATELLITE LOOPS AND CURRENT IMAGERY APPEAR TO IDENTIFY AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH THAT ROUGHLY EXTENDS FROM 12N94W TO 06N95W. THE TROUGH IS AIDING ALREADY PRESENT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY OVER THIS PART OF THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA RESULTING IN CLUSTERING OF SCATTERED TO MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 100W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC REGION IS JUST OFFSHORE AND INLAND THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR. THIS CONVECTION IS MOVING SW IN RESPONSE DRIVEN BY MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER NE WINDS AROUND THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER NW NICARAGUA. SLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS NWD TO ACROSS SE MEXICO... GUATEMALA AND NRN HONDURAS. THESE CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NEWD TO OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 20N134W BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN SHIFT SW AND DEEPEN THROUGH FRI...ALLOWING FOR MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO REBUILD TO ITS E. THIS WILL ACT TO DIFFUSE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE... A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER IS N OF THE AREA AT 34N136W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO 26N125W AND TO NEAR 21N117W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 115W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0520 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED N-NE 20 KT WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 131W...AND NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE NE PORTION N OF 24N E OF 123W TO THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE 1030 MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SW AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER MEXICO AND IN THE TROPICS THAT HAS PRODUCED THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS RESULTING IN A GRADUAL SHRINKING OF THE WIND AREAS WITH THE 20-25 KT WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT...HOWEVER N-NE 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE N OF 19N BETWEEN 120W-127W...AND FROM 10N TO 28N W OF 127W BY 48 HRS. SEAS TO 12 FT IN THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE DURING THE 48 HRS WITH A NW SWELL CONTINUING THERE. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS PRESENT JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA E OF 126W ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE BY THU EVENING. A 1010 MB ILL-DEFINED LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ...CENTERED NEAR 09N127W MOVING W AT 12 KT. 20 KT WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WWD TRACK ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE IT TRACKS IN A MORE WSW DIRECTION INTO FRI. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE 20 KT WINDS RADII IN THE NW QUADRANT BY 24 HRS. BY 48 HRS THE LOW WILL BE FORECAST TO BE REMAIN WEAK NEAR 08N135W AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. $$ AGUIRRE