000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060352
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N92W TO 08N98W TO 
10N111W THEN ITCZ TO 11N123W TO LOW PRES 1000 MB AT 09N126W THEN 
TO 05N135W TO BEYOND 05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 110W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
EXISTS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...
ILL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 06N116W HAS CREST ALONG 
118W TO BEYOND 32N.  APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENING 
CREST W OF 122W THREATENS TO DEEPEN INTO CUT OFF CYCLONE BY LATE 
THU. POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING DIVERGENT FLOW JUST NW OF WEAK 
1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MAY INCREASE DEEP 
CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY.  AS LONG AS LOW PRES REMAINS 
EMBEDDED IN ITCZ...LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION 
REMAINS LOW.

SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE FROM WESTERN CENTRAL MEXICO TO 
09N102W SPLIT ABOVE MENTIONED ANTICYCLONE FROM SECOND ONE JUST 
OFF COAST OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MONSOON 
TROUGH REMAINS UNDER DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND MAY CONTINUE 
THROUGH THU.     

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB N OF AREA AT 34N136W MAINTAINS STEADY 
FLOW OF FRESH N TO NE BREEZE N OF 25N E OF 126W.  WINDS EXPAND 
IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH AS HIGH PRES PRESSES GRADIENT AGAINST 
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES AT 10N125W AND TROUGH ACROSS 
MEXICO MOUNTAIN RIDGE.  PRESENT 8-9 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
WITH WINDS AND REACH 10-12 FT BY THU.      

LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB AT 09N127W MAINTAIN FRESH BREEZE AND 
SEAS TO 9 FT WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. LOW PRES EXPECTED TO MOVE 
W TO 08N130W WHILE STILL EMBEDDED IN ITCZ WITH INCREASING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER AND FRESH 
NE WINDS W OF TROUGH AXIS.

$$
WALLY BARNES